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Wednesday, May 13, 2015

What's Next? A Looming Trade War?

From http://el-paso.ucg.org/ or call 1-888-886-8632. Please follow this site here.

What's Next? A Looming Trade War?

by Mario Seiglie Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

First there was the housing bubble—over a year ago. Then there was the financial bubble—under a year ago. And now we are beginning to witness a third bubble bursting—a world trade bubble.

Trade figures appallingly down

The figures are alarming. For December 2008, Japan's exports were down by 35 percent; Taiwan's were down 42 percent; South Korea's exports tumbled 17 percent; and in January 2009, China 's exports were down 12.5 percent. Trade among emerging markets was just as grim, and the developed countries all suffered big export declines.
Now comes the news of the economic dire straits that Russia and some Eastern European countries are in. Nations such as Austria, Germany and Italy are also deeply exposed financially, due to prior lending to many Eastern European nations that now appear unable to pay them back.
The Wall Street Journal recently wrote: “The economic distress and currency tumbles in Eastern Europe will ‘trigger a write-down into the Western European banking system,' says Hans-Guenter Redeker, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London. ‘The question is how much.' He says a conservative estimate would be about 20% of the total invested by such banks in the region. Moody's estimated the total at $1.3 trillion at the start of 2008” (“Banks Reel on Eastern Europe's Bad News,” Feb. 18, 2009, online edition).

A looming trade war?

One should take note of what this can mean during 2009 if world economic production and trade continue to skid downward. Already, The Economist magazine is bringing up the possible consequences—a looming trade war.
The recent February 2009 U.S. stimulus program of $787 billion had some provisions of “buy American.” While this makes much sense nationally, if all the nations begin to turn inward, it will derail international commerce and produce an even bigger downward spiral.
In an article titled “Buying American” The Economist explains, “In 1929 Willis Hawley and Reed Smoot, two protectionist Republicans in Congress, sponsored a bill to raise tariffs to the highest levels America had ever seen. And in the midst of economic distress, the protectionists won. The result was a round of reciprocal tariff hikes elsewhere, and a disastrous collapse in international trade…
“[Now] House Democrats want to require that all iron and steel used in stimulus-funded infrastructure projects should be made in the United States…But American exporters fear retaliation against their goods, both in places like China, at whom the steel provisions are aimed, and in rich countries, which are already slipping domestic-purchasing requirements into their own stimulus packages” (Jan. 31, 2009, p. 40).

“Beggar thy neighbor” policies

This, in economic terms, is called a “beggar thy neighbor” policy. As each nation strives to stem the political distress over the dire economic situation, it begins protecting and heavily subsidizing its own industries and raising protectionist tariffs. This raises the possibility of a trade war.
The term “trade war” strikes a nerve in me. Over 30 years ago, I remember taking an economics class at college where the professor, an avid Bible prophecy reader, mentioned that the most feasible end-time scenario would be one where an international trade war begins the process.
We asked, “Why is that?” He answered, in effect, “Because it would disrupt the world economic system to the point where unemployment would reach unacceptable levels and nations would turn inward for solutions, hoarding the money for themselves and causing further economic decline. People would then demand that a different economic system emerge that placed jobs, security and order over freedom and a free-market system.”
This is precisely what happened in Germany in the 1930s, as the trade war and economic and political weaknesses helped bring Adolf Hitler to power and led to World War II.
For several decades, we have not experienced the devastating effects of a trade war. As long as nations continue to trade among themselves, each contributes to the welfare of the other and each can help prop the other up. But a trade war turns your economic friend into an adversary and much ill-will is generated. In a short time, a trade war can also lead to another type of war—of the military genre.

Possible scenario for end-time prophecy

In Daniel 7:2-3, we read of four world empires represented as wild beasts emerging from the churning ” Great Sea ” (the Mediterranean Sea), indicating restlessness.
In Revelation 13:1, we also read of the emergence of a great power at the end time as coming out of the sea, possibly signaling that it comes out of something deep and restless. The apostle John said, “Then I stood on the sand of the sea. And I saw a beast rising up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and on his horns ten crowns, and on his heads a blasphemous name” (Revelation 13:1).
This unexpected emergence from a restless society will certainly take the world by surprise.
We hope that the looming trade war does not materialize. But what can we do if it does?
In the short term, you can prepare financially for the present recession by reading our free booklets Managing Your Finances and Making Life Work . It is certainly time to get our financial houses in order. Also, you can contact trained ministers for help at our ucg.org Web site, under “Contact” and “Local Congregations.”
In the long term, we must be ready spiritually if the coming events lead to an end-time scenario. When we pray each day, “Thy kingdom come,” we are reminded that God is ultimately in charge of everything, and His Kingdom that is coming will solve all the world's ills under the righteous government of Jesus Christ. That is at least very comforting to know!

Christ's advice in eight points

Also, Jesus Christ warned, “But take heed to yourselves, lest your hearts be weighed down with carousing, drunkenness, and cares of this life, and that Day come on you unexpectedly. For it will come as a snare on all those who dwell on the face of the whole earth. Watch therefore, and pray always that you may be counted worthy to escape all these things that will come to pass, and to stand before the Son of Man” (Luke 21:34-36).
We can break down Christ's admonition into eight points:
1. We need to first examine ourselves spiritually and see how we are doing before God.
2. We need to make sure we are not so absorbed in the daily cares of life that we aren't concerned about Bible prophecy. True, we shouldn't get wrapped up in Bible prophecy to the point that we forget to take care of our physical needs, but going to the opposite ditch is just as damaging.
3. We need to realize “that Day” is coming, whether we like it or not. To stick our heads in the sand like the proverbial ostrich is not a sound policy.
4. We need to realize that most of the world will be unaware of the coming of that Day, just as they were during Noah's day about the coming Flood (Luke 17:26-27). Noah, after all, was a “doom-and-gloomer” who got it right!
5. We need to watch world events to see the “fig leaves” (Mark 13:28-31), or the signs appearing before “that Day.” That is the main purpose of World News vand Prophecy !
6. We need to “pray always.” Don't let down in your spiritual life—you need God's help more than ever!
7. We need to focus on the hope “that you may be counted worthy to escape all these things that will come to pass.” This means God has a way out for all of us from the coming world-shaking events—a place of safety He has promised for God's faithful people.
8. We need to remember the all-important purpose of our lives: “To stand before the Son of Man.” Christ has promised to return, and He wants us to humbly stand before Him. We won't be ashamed in “that Day” if we now put Him first in our lives and fulfill His work upon this earth—helping get the true gospel out to the world and helping to prepare a people for Him as He establishes His Kingdom of peace, love and joy.
So, as you can see, there is plenty to do as we continue to watch these disconcerting and unprecedented world events! WNP

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

The Enormous Expansion of Chinese Influence: What Does It Portend?

From http://el-paso.ucg.org/ or call 1-888-886-8632.

The Enormous Expansion of Chinese Influence: What Does It Portend?

article by John Ross Schroeder

Recent news reports strongly suggest that China's military, economic and political influence continues to expand aggressively both in Asia and the world at large. What are the long-term implications?

Some observers predict an Asian-centered world order—part of our ever-changing constellation of global power and influence. One renowned Indian statesman actually stated that the 21st century "will be Asia's century."

Foreign Affairs also comments: "China's extraordinary economic growth and active diplomacy are already transforming East Asia, and future decades will see even greater increases in Chinese power and influence... Will China overthrow the existing order or become a part of it? And what, if anything, can the United States do to maintain its position as China rises?" (January-February 2008, emphasis added throughout).

But before we address these questions posed by Foreign Affairs, let's take a more searching look at Chinese expansionist efforts in Asia itself.

The military implications of Chinese expansion

David Blair, diplomatic editor of The Daily Telegraph, writes: "China is building a web of influence across South Asia. Many of Beijing's immensely ambitious projects are years away from fruition, yet the repercussions of these ventures are already being felt" ("China on the Rise Once More Across the East," Telegraph.co.uk, May 20, 2009).

The Chinese are currently constructing ports in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and on a Burmese island. Recall that China gave Sri Lanka its support during the conflict with the Tamil Tigers. Ports like the one in Sri Lanka could possibly be used as Chinese naval bases in the future, raising questions as to whether China will extend its naval strength into the Indian Ocean.

Kerry Brown, an official of the Asian program of the British Chatham House think tank, states: "China is marching toward regional dominance and that brings it into conflict with India on one flank and Japan on the other. It will at some point become much more active as a military power in that region" (ibid.).

But Mr. Brown does not believe that China necessarily wants conflict. His thoughts are that the Chinese "are seeking a stable international environment within which they can continue their economic development." Nonetheless, other countries in the general region are understandably worried about China's intentions. Australia is one.

Australian reaction to China's growing military

According to Bonnie Malkin, reporting for The Daily Telegraph from Sydney, "Australia is conducting the biggest expansion of its navy since the Second World War and will spend an extra £35 billion on the armed forces over the next 20 years" ("Australia Expands Navy as Chinese Power Grows," Telegraph.co.uk, May 19, 2009).

It seems highly likely that Australia's military buildup could very well be related to Chinese expansion. "The potential instability caused by the emergence of China and India as major world powers was cited as the most pressing concern for this military build-up in particular. Australian defence planners are believed to be concerned about China's growing naval strength and America's possible retreat as a global power in the decades ahead" (ibid.).

This article goes on to discuss the doubling of Chinese submarine patrols in the past year, calling attention to the extension of China's navy into Australian territorial waters. While specifically denying any plans for any future war with China, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd stated categorically that his government would "'make absolutely no apology' for taking whatever steps were needed to guarantee the country's security."

China and Russia

China and Russia have a long history of both cooperation and conflict. According to Andrew Boyd's An Atlas of World Affairs, "In a long series of conquests, from 1500 to 1900, Russia and China took over all of northern Asia. Between them, they subdued the Mongolians and all the Turkic-language peoples, from the Azerbaijanis of the Caucasus to the Yakuts of eastern Siberia, and including the Kazakhs, Tatars, Uighurs and Uzbeks" (10th edition, 1998, p. 173).

But cooperation can turn into conflict, and the two giant empires clashed periodically, principally over territorial tensions. Fast-forwarding to the late 20th century, Sino-Russian relations grew considerably warmer.

"In 1989 the USSR withdrew its troops from Afghanistan and began to reduce its forces in Mongolia and on the Chinese frontier; this satisfied some of China's requirements for a 'normalizing' of relations. Tension was eased, and work was resumed on the completion of a [transnational] rail link...The break-up of the USSR created a buffer zone in central Asia, and Russo-Chinese relations continued to improve" (ibid., pp. 174-175).

Relations between these two geographic giants had apparently deteriorated to the point in the early 1970s that Leonid Brezhnev had reputedly asked President Richard Nixon for permission to "nuke" the People's Republic of China. Reportedly, the stern reply was a firm "No."

The Sino-Russian relationship continues to wax and wane. "In the early 1990s, massive sales of arms to China made up 2% of Russia's exports. Russia needed the money badly, but its generals grew nervous about China's new military strength" (p. 175).

China's relationships with other countries on its border also warrant observation, in terms of possible prophetic overtones for the end time. Consider India.

Chinese disputes with India

After many decades of relative stagnation, both China and India have seen remarkable growth rates over the last two decades and more. These two Asian giants alone have almost two fifths of the entire world population. Although set back somewhat by the current world recession, economically both nations could still be viewed to be on the march.

These two Asian countries have a long history of border tensions and disputed territorial claims on their 2,100-mile border. Threats of war and even a few serious skirmishes have occurred. David Blair recently reported, "The tension between China and India over their bitterly disputed border has spread to the Asian Development Bank [ADB], where Beijing has blocked almost £2 billion for its neighbour" ("China Blocks £2 Billion in Aid to India," Telegraph.co.uk, May 19, 2009). Part of the total amount has been earmarked for a northern Indian water project on territory China claims for its own.

India would need U.S. support if it ever hopes to be able to persuade the Chinese to relent and ask the ADB to release the funds. Such events shift relations between nations. But in spite of serious periodic differences between these three countries, could China, Russia and India come together at the time of the end?

Certainly in today's world, America appears to be on the wane and China and Asia on the ascent. Why is the United States suffering so many setbacks in the world? Are there both historic and prophetic reasons?

A prophetic picture of the time of the end

Bible prophecies in the book of Revelation and the book of Daniel dovetail together to give us an intriguing picture of events at the time of the end.

Daniel 11:40And at the time of the end shall the king of the south push at him: and the king of the north shall come against him like a whirlwind, with chariots, and with horsemen, and with many ships; and he shall enter into the countries, and shall overflow and pass over.

See All... mentions these occurrences "at the time of end" and the fact that the king of the North (identified prophetically as the charismatic leader of a Central European combine of nations), while entering the Holy Land, attacks the king of the South (probably the leader of an Arab-Islamic confederation). Then verse 44 tells us of "news from the east" that will trouble this king of the North.

Revelation 9:13-16 [13] And the sixth angel sounded, and I heard a voice from the four horns of the golden altar which is before God,

[14] Saying to the sixth angel which had the trumpet, Loose the four angels which are bound in the great river Euphrates.

[15] And the four angels were loosed, which were prepared for an hour, and a day, and a month, and a year, for to slay the third part of men.

[16] And the number of the army of the horsemen were two hundred thousand thousand: and I heard the number of them.

See All..., also describing end-time events, describes an eastern army 200-million strong that unleashes great devastation, killing a third of mankind. Several chapters later, in Revelation 16:12And the sixth angel poured out his vial upon the great river Euphrates; and the water thereof was dried up, that the way of the kings of the east might be prepared.

See All..., we read of "the kings [leaders] from the east" crossing the Euphrates River.

It would appear that one of these forces is an Islamic counterattack to the king of the North entering the Holy Land. The other, it appears, is likely from further east, from China, India and other Asian nations that lie to the east of the Holy Land. Regardless of which is which, demonic forces will influence "the kings of the earth" to gather together at Armageddon for that final battle against Jesus Christ (Revelation 16:14For they are the spirits of devils, working miracles, which go forth unto the kings of the earth and of the whole world, to gather them to the battle of that great day of God Almighty.

See All...).

In effect this will be the final World War. The returning Jesus Christ will be the undisputed winner of truly "the mother of all battles." It will constitute mankind's final rebellion against his Creator during this age of man. But the outcome has already been determined. "The kingdoms of this world have become the kingdoms of our Lord and of His Christ, and He shall reign forever and ever!" (Revelation 11:15And the seventh angel sounded; and there were great voices in heaven, saying, The kingdoms of this world are become the kingdoms of our Lord, and of his Christ; and he shall reign for ever and ever.

See All...).

To learn more

This article can only briefly summarize the significance of these end-time events. Our free booklet You Can Understand Bible Prophecy will give you a basic overview of all the major events accompanying the time of the end and even well on beyond. A companion booklet titled Are We Living in the Time of the End? highlights the telltale signs that signal that we are indeed approaching the close of an age.

Another publication, The Book of Revelation Unveiled , shows how to truly comprehend the message of that mystery book. The booklet The Middle East in Bible Prophecy brings a needed perspective of historic events such as the four empires revealed in the book of Daniel and the rise and fall of ancient Israel.

Since no power identifiable as the United States is found depicted in the events described in the book of Revelation, this fact strongly indicates that some combination of major factors leads to America's prophesied collapse before the very final events preceding Christ's return. To learn more about this whole story, historic and prophetic, read the booklet The United States and Britain in Bible Prophecy . WNP

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Thursday, January 31, 2013

Australia: An Underappreciated Nation

From http://el-paso.ucg.org/ or call 1-888-886-8632.

Australia: An Underappreciated Nation

article by Melvin Rhodes

World War I, World War II, Korea, Vietnam, Desert Storm and Iraq. Only one nation has fought in all these wars from beginning to end—Australia.

Each time I visit Australia, I have the same thought: "If I were 30 years younger, I'd move here!"

In fact, we almost did. Forty years ago my father had wanted to take advantage of the assisted-passage program offered by the Australian government, through which British people could move to Australia for just 10 British pounds. What finally put him off the idea was Australia's presence in Vietnam. He did not want to lose any of his six sons fighting a war he strongly opposed.

But many Australians did die in Vietnam. Australians also made the ultimate sacrifice, dying in great numbers, particularly in World War I and World War II. The country also sent its soldiers to Korea and more recently to the first Persian Gulf War. Australians now serve alongside their American and British allies in Iraq.

It's ironic: Australians inhabit the one continent that has not experienced war, yet their record in fighting for freedom is second to none—especially when you consider the country's relatively small population. Australia is the only nation in the world that fought in World Wars I and II, Korea, Vietnam and the two Persian Gulf conflicts against Iraq from beginning to end. When it comes to the ongoing defense of the Western world, Australia truly is an underappreciated country.

Australia is a relatively new country. British settlement of the island continent did not begin until after the United States was formed as an independent nation. The first European settlers sailed into Botany Bay in 1788.

Throughout the 19th century they continued to come until, at the dawn of the 20th century, Australia became an independent nation, one of the dominions that formed the nucleus of the British Commonwealth. As The Encyclopaedia Britannica puts it: "A British dominion and a member of the British Commonwealth of Nations, it had become the most important monument to the British Empire in the Southern Hemisphere" (15th edition, Macropaedia, 1976, "Australia," p. 399).

In writing of the character of the Australian people, the encyclopedia states: "The long struggle by these settlers to tame the Australian Outback helped to form the tough and independent character of modern Australians just as the struggles of the pioneers and frontiersmen helped to mold the national character of the United States" (p. 403).

Together with Canada, New Zealand and South Africa, the dominions played an incredible role in helping Great Britain during the two major conflicts of the 20th century.

Isolated some 12,000 miles from London via the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal, and 7,000 miles from the United States, the Australians could easily have stayed out of the 1914-18 war against Germany and the other Axis Powers. But Australians volunteered in the hundreds of thousands to fight. Tens of thousands

of them died.

Australians help Great Britain

After relying on Britain for defense during most of the 19th century, Australia was to more than pay Britain back in the conflicts of the 20th. Colonial troops had already fought alongside the British in the last two decades of the 19th century, in both the Sudan and the Boer War. But in World War I, 330,000 Australians were to serve—60,000 of whom did not return. An additional 165,000 suffered wounds. Few nations paid such a heavy price.

The Australia and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC) played a key role in the 1915 campaign in the Dardanelles, the narrow straight in western Turkey linking the Mediterranean Sea with the Black Sea, a crucial crossroads between Europe and the Middle East. April 25—the day of the ANZAC landing there at Gallipoli—came to be honored as a day of national reverence.

Yet even before that, Australian forces had captured German New Guinea and the German cruiser Emden was sunk by the Australian navy. After the Dardanelles campaign, Australian troops fought in many bloody battles in France. In the Holy Land, Australian cavalry helped British forces defeat Turkey, leading to the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.

In World War II, Australia again came to Britain's aid, long before Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor threatened Australia itself. Again the Australians made a heavy sacrifice. Around 30,000 of them died in World War II; another 65,000 were injured.

In the 27 months that the British Empire and Commonwealth fought Germany before America entered the war, Australians played a major role in helping the British avoid defeat. During the Battle of Britain, when the United Kingdom was fighting for its very survival, the

Royal Australian Air Force was active in defending the skies over the island nation.

At the same time, the Royal Australian Navy operated in the Mediterranean, helping to win the Battle of Cape Matapan in 1941. Australian troops fought in North Africa against Rommel's Afrika Korps, with Australians playing the greatest role during the Allied defense of Tobruk in late 1941. Australians suffered heavy losses in the Allied defeats in Greece and Crete, as well as in the Allied victories in the Levant. All of this was prior to Pearl Harbor, which changed the country's priorities.

Australia assists America

After Pearl Harbor, Australia was to look to the United States as its principal ally in the Pacific theater. As World War II Prime Minister John Curtin declared: "I make it quite clear that Australia looks to America, free from any pangs about our traditional links of friendship to Britain."

Two months later, emphasizing this change of direction, after losing 15,000 men in the fall of Singapore, Prime Minister Curtin insisted that Australian troops recalled from the Middle East should return to Australia itself and not be used in Burma as British Prime Minister Winston Churchill wanted. Four days after the fall of Singapore, the northern Australian city of Darwin was bombed by Japanese planes.

U.S. General Douglas MacArthur placed his headquarters in Australia, while the Australian navy assisted in the victorious Battle of the Coral Sea in May of 1942. After that, Americans and Australians were to fight together in many of the battles of World War II. Australia"s role, though secondary, remained very significant. After 1942 the British Royal Navy was no longer Australia's protection against invasion or foreign attack.

Following World War II, Australia was to look more to the United States than to Britain, forming the ANZUS treaty with America and New Zealand. Australia sent troops to Korea and Vietnam. More recently, Australians have fought in both Persian Gulf conflicts. Additionally, they supported Britain in the only successful anti-insurgency war of modern times, fought in Malaysia in the 1960s. More recently, Australia has helped end regional conflicts in East Timor and the Solomon Islands.

But it"s not only in the fight for freedom that Australians have been prominent. Australia is also a caring and compassionate nation that is actively involved in helping its neighbors. After the Dec. 26 tsunami, Australia, geographically almost as big as the United States but with only 19 million residents, pledged more aid than any other single nation. Australians were among the first to arrive with material help, alleviating the suffering of tsunami survivors.

The source of Australia's blessings

Australia truly has been blessed. It has often been called the "lucky country." But luck has nothing to do with the tremendous blessings of this great land.

The preamble to the Australian con-stitution begins: "Whereas the people of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Queensland, and Tasmania, humbly relying on the blessing of Almighty God . . ."

Indeed, it is God who gave this land to the original British settlers, as part of the promised blessing to the descendants of Joseph, the favorite son of the biblical patriarch Jacob, whom God renamed Israel.

Through Jacob, God revealed that Joseph's two sons were to grow into "a multitude of nations" (Genesis 48:19And his father refused, and said, I know it, my son, I know it: he also shall become a people, and he also shall be great: but truly his younger brother shall be greater than he, and his seed shall become a multitude of nations.

See All...), a prophecy that was fulfilled in the British Empire and Commonwealth, and a "great" single nation, the United States of America.

As descendants of Abraham, these nations were to be a blessing to "all the families of the earth" (Genesis 12:3And I will bless them that bless thee, and curse him that curseth thee: and in thee shall all families of the earth be blessed.

See All...). Joseph was further told that his descendants would be a "fruitful bough" (Genesis 49:22Joseph is a fruitful bough, even a fruitful bough by a well; whose branches run over the wall:

See All...). Australia and America have been two of the most productive agricultural nations on earth, helping to feed the world"s hungry and poverty-stricken peoples.

These nations, along with Great Britain and the other nations of the British Commonwealth, were also to play a military role "in the last days" (Genesis 49:1And Jacob called unto his sons, and said, Gather yourselves together, that I may tell you that which shall befall you in the last days.

See All...).

Verses 23-24 describe this role: "With bitterness archers attacked him; they shot at him with hostility. But his bow remained steady, his strong arms stayed limber, because of the hand of the Mighty One of Jacob" (New International Version). In other words, God—whether acknowledged or not—has played a major hand in these nations" victories.

Australia is an underappreciated country. But the great God who gave Australians their wealth and their strength is also underappreciated, even in Australia. The world needs to give thanks for Australia and also for the God who gave this land its many blessings. GN

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United Church of God El Paso

Wednesday, May 13, 2015