China: Cooperation or Conflict?
article by Rod Hall
Concern is growing over China's increasing assertiveness and conflicts with other nations. What is behind the Asian Dragon's growing aggressiveness, and where does Bible prophecy say this will lead?
Soldiers with the People's Liberation Army at Shenyang training base in China.
Source: United States Air ForceThe amazing economic, political and military transformation of the People's Republic of China is rapidly pushing it into the realm of superpower status. Over the past 30 years it has been the world's fastest-growing economy with an average annual increase of 10 percent.
China recently passed Japan in becoming the second greatest economic power behind America, and it overtook Germany as the number one exporting country. It's still far behind the United States in terms of GDP—$5.9 trillion vs. $14.7 trillion. Nevertheless, it's now ousting America as the world's biggest manufacturer—a position the United States has held for 110 years. Chinese manpower is vast. Consider that while China is about the geographic size of America, it has more than four times the population—1.3 billion people or nearly a fifth of humanity.
Moreover, "according to the latest IMF [International Monetary Fund] official forecasts, China's economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016—just five years from now" ("IMF Bombshell: Age of America Nears End," MarketWatch, April 25, 2011).
Will this burgeoning global colossus cooperate with America and the West, or will its growing influence lead to greater conflict or even war?
The drophead of an article in The Economist says, "China and America are bound to be rivals, but they do not have to be antagonists" ("The Dangers of a Rising China," Dec. 2, 2010). "But the two mistrust each other," the article states, "China sees America as a waning power that will eventually seek to block its own rise. And America worries about how Chinese nationalism, fueled by rediscovered economic and military might, will express itself." Just where is all of this heading?
Will the new China fit in or become a threat
The impact of the revolutionary changes underway inside China are felt worldwide and are creating a new self-identity—a potent mix of past greatness, recent humiliation, present achievement and future supremacy.
As China transitions into a world power, another article in The Economist asks: "Will it broadly fit in with the Western world, as a place where people want nothing more than a chance to succeed? Or . . . will China become a threat—an angry country set on avenging past wrongs and forcing others to bend to its will?
"China's choice of role, says Jim Steinberg, America's deputy secretary of state, is ‘the great question of our time.' The peace and prosperity of the world depends on which path it takes" ("Brushwood and Gall," Dec. 2, 2010, emphasis added throughout).
Of course it's wise to remember that China is no stranger to conflict. Since 1949 China has had military skirmishes with Russia and has fought against United Nations actions in Korea, India and Vietnam.
According to Foreign Affairs, available data shows "China as the only major power that has been more violent than Muslim states; in crises, it has used force at a rate more than four times as high as that of the United States" (Richard Betts, "Conflict or Cooperation? Three Visions Revisited," Nov.-Dec. 2010).
Conflicts in the South China Sea
As relations grow worse, so does the potential for conflicts. China's rising hard and soft global power is felt most directly in Southeast Asia, where it's trying to create a more dominant sphere of influence than America's. But many of China's 14 neighboring countries remain uneasy about the prediction of a "Chinese century" and hotly dispute its claim to much of the South China Sea.
China sees the shadowy hand of America exerting its influence in an effort to contain and limit its rise, which is something it says it will not permit. The wealth of these Asian countries depends on China while their security currently depends on America, so which way will they turn?
China has joined more than 50 intergovernmental and 1,000 international nongovernmental organizations, including ASEAN Plus Three. ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) recently became China's third-largest trading partner.
"But reasonable China sometimes gives way to aggressive China," says The Economist ("The Dangers of a Rising China," Dec. 2, 2010).
"In March [2010], when the North [i.e., North Korea] sank a South Korean warship, killing 46 sailors, China failed to issue any condemnation. A few months later it fell out with Japan over some Chinese fishermen, arrested for ramming Japanese coastguard vessels around some disputed islands—and then it locked up some Japanese businessmen and withheld exports of rare earths vital for Japanese industry. And it has forcefully reasserted its claim to the Spratly and Paracel Islands and to sovereignty over virtually the entire South China Sea" (ibid.).
China did act quickly to help Japan with disaster relief following the recent earthquake and tsunami, but conflicts remain.
"The danger is that spats and rows will sour relations between China and America, just as the friendship between Germany and Britain crumbled in the decades before the first world war" (ibid.).
Other potential flashpoints
North Korea, Taiwan and various trade disputes are other areas of possible conflict.
China is North Korea's only real ally and primary benefactor. The United States continues to call on China to do more to halt North Korea's provocative behavior and meet international obligations. The Americans recently accused China of "enabling" North Korea to start a uranium-enrichment program and to launch attacks on South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island—the first strike on civilians since the Korean War (1950-53). The North even threatened to use nuclear weapons.
If war breaks out between the two Koreas, it would likely involve the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in the South, and China may back the aggressor as it did during the Korean and Vietnam Wars.
Then there's China's claim to the island nation of Taiwan (which continued as the Republic of China after the communist revolution established the People's Republic of China over the mainland). "If the two Koreas share the world's scariest land border, the Taiwan Strait is its scariest sea passage. [Communist] China's insistence on reunification is absolute," says The Economist ("Friends, or Else," Dec. 2, 2010). While increased air travel and a new free-trade agreement are signs of improving relations, in a military conflict America would likely feel compelled to come to Taiwan's aid.
As for concerns over trade conflicts, "Chinese companies are scouring the globe for the raw materials they need. Already China is Saudi Arabia's biggest customer. It imports about half of the oil it burns, a share that will rise to two-thirds by 2015 and four-fifths by 2030. China cares what happens in the countries that supply it . . . One reason why China is now building an ocean-going navy is to protect its raw materials and goods from embargoes. This reflects a lack of faith in the global trading system, part of an underlying fear that the West is fundamentally hostile to China's prosperity" ("Less Biding and Hiding," The Economist, Dec. 2, 2010).
Growing military might
As the potential for conflicts grows, so does China's military might. The Chinese have the world's second largest navy and the largest standing army—more than 2.25 million troops (plus some 1.17 million paramilitary and reserves).
Over the past decade military expenditures have grown about 10 percent annually, reaching almost $100 billion a year, second only to America. The country has also been modernizing its missiles, submarines, radar, cyber-warfare and anti-satellite weapons.
The Economist reports a few areas that stand out. One is "what the Pentagon calls ‘the most active land-based ballistic- and cruise-missile programme in the world' . . . They are also improving their medium-range ballistic missiles able to carry either conventional or nuclear warheads and deploy several hundred air and land-launched long-range cruise missiles" ("The Fourth Modernisation," Dec. 2, 2010).
Furthermore, "China has transformed and enlarged its submarine fleet. China has about 66 submarines against America's 71, though the American boats are superior" (ibid.). Some estimate they will have 85 to 100 by 2030. "What does this amount to? Military experts in America, Australia and Japan think China's new arsenals are a greater threat than its higher-profile plans to launch aircraft-carriers in the next decade or so . . . Ultimately, China seems to want to stop the American fleet from being able to secure its interests in the western Pacific" (ibid.).
Key prophetic relationships: Russia and India
In addition to building its military capacity, China is also developing closer relations with key countries in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Its relationships with Russia and India will also likely continue to grow.
Bible prophecy indicates that nations north and east of Jerusalem will engage in a major end-time conflict with a group of 10 European powers led by what the prophet Daniel calls the "king of the North" (Daniel 11:40-44 [40] And at the time of the end shall the king of the south push at him: and the king of the north shall come against him like a whirlwind, with chariots, and with horsemen, and with many ships; and he shall enter into the countries, and shall overflow and pass over.
[41] He shall enter also into the glorious land, and many countries shall be overthrown: but these shall escape out of his hand, even Edom, and Moab, and the chief of the children of Ammon.
[42] He shall stretch forth his hand also upon the countries: and the land of Egypt shall not escape.
[43] But he shall have power over the treasures of gold and of silver, and over all the precious things of Egypt: and the Libyans and the Ethiopians shall be at his steps.
[44] But tidings out of the east and out of the north shall trouble him: therefore he shall go forth with great fury to destroy, and utterly to make away many.
See All...). The book of Revelation calls this leader, as well as the union he rules over, "the beast" (Revelation 17:12-14 [12] And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings, which have received no kingdom as yet; but receive power as kings one hour with the beast.
[13] These have one mind, and shall give their power and strength unto the beast.
[14] These shall make war with the Lamb, and the Lamb shall overcome them: for he is Lord of lords, and King of kings: and they that are with him are called, and chosen, and faithful.
See All...).
Russia is the major power north of Jerusalem, while India, China and other Asian countries lie east. According to Ezekiel 38 and 39, these and other Asian nations will fight together against Jesus Christ shortly after He establishes His rule on the earth and restores the people of Israel to their homeland. So it fits well that these northern and eastern forces would be in alliance shortly before His coming as well. Indications are that they will respond with overwhelming military force to the overt military actions of the king of the North as his forces move into the Middle East.
Russia today continues to be China's leading provider of arms, and joint military exercises have been conducted between these nations for the past five years. Even the legislative bodies of the two countries, the Russian Duma and National People's Congress, announced they will begin building a "stronger China-Russia strategic partnership of coordination" (Xinhua News Agency, Dec. 2, 2010).
Ties with India are also growing. Historically, China and India have enjoyed thousands of years of relative peace between them, and now joint trade has been growing at about 46 percent annually over the past five years—reaching $60 billion. For the last four years they have conducted joint military exercises. India has the world's second largest military (1.3 million, plus nearly twice as many paramilitary and reserves) and second largest population (1.2 billion). It also has 60 to 80 nuclear weapons.
Devastating end-time events
In the short run, says The Economist about China's rise, "the most likely outcome is a more assertive China that wants to get more done abroad without fundamentally upsetting the world order. On sensitive territorial issues where the [ruling communist] party's credentials are at stake, China may be uncompromising and increasingly unreasonable . . . How easily will the world accommodate this more assertive China? . . . Asian security will be determined not just by how China uses its new strength but by how other countries react to it" ("Less Biding and Hiding").
Bible prophecy gives no specific indication of a major conflict between China and America. But it does reveal that America's power will fade (Leviticus 26:16-19 [16] I also will do this unto you; I will even appoint over you terror, consumption, and the burning ague, that shall consume the eyes, and cause sorrow of heart: and ye shall sow your seed in vain, for your enemies shall eat it.
[17] And I will set my face against you, and ye shall be slain before your enemies: they that hate you shall reign over you; and ye shall flee when none pursueth you.
[18] And if ye will not yet for all this hearken unto me, then I will punish you seven times more for your sins.
[19] And I will break the pride of your power; and I will make your heaven as iron, and your earth as brass:
See All...) while European and Asian powers are destined to rise, building toward critical end-time events.
With the blowing of the sixth of the "seven trumpets" in the book of Revelation (8:6), a huge 200-million-man army will arise from lands to the east of the Euphrates River (Revelation 9:13-19 [13] And the sixth angel sounded, and I heard a voice from the four horns of the golden altar which is before God,
[14] Saying to the sixth angel which had the trumpet, Loose the four angels which are bound in the great river Euphrates.
[15] And the four angels were loosed, which were prepared for an hour, and a day, and a month, and a year, for to slay the third part of men.
[16] And the number of the army of the horsemen were two hundred thousand thousand: and I heard the number of them.
[17] And thus I saw the horses in the vision, and them that sat on them, having breastplates of fire, and of jacinth, and brimstone: and the heads of the horses were as the heads of lions; and out of their mouths issued fire and smoke and brimstone.
[18] By these three was the third part of men killed, by the fire, and by the smoke, and by the brimstone, which issued out of their mouths.
[19] For their power is in their mouth, and in their tails: for their tails were like unto serpents, and had heads, and with them they do hurt.
See All...). That's about double the nearly 100 million troops mobilized on all sides during World War II.
The resulting engagement will kill a third of mankind and may involve weapons of mass destruction (verses 18-19).
These events are followed by what appears to be a second phase of the overall operation as Revelation 16:12And the sixth angel poured out his vial upon the great river Euphrates; and the water thereof was dried up, that the way of the kings of the east might be prepared.
See All... reveals: "Then the sixth angel poured out his bowl on the great river Euphrates, and its water was dried up, so that the way of the kings from the east might be prepared." Notice that the forces of multiple eastern rulers are involved.
The ultimate outcome of these major events is Jesus Christ intervening in divine power to save humanity from complete self-annihilation as the armies of the earth gather at Armageddon (verse 16; Matthew 24:22And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved: but for the elect's sake those days shall be shortened.
See All...). Then Jesus will establish His rule on the earth at long last, ushering in a thousand years of peace (see Revelation 20:6Blessed and holy is he that hath part in the first resurrection: on such the second death hath no power, but they shall be priests of God and of Christ, and shall reign with him a thousand years.
See All...; Isaiah 2:2-4 [2] And it shall come to pass in the last days, that the mountain of the LORD's house shall be established in the top of the mountains, and shall be exalted above the hills; and all nations shall flow unto it.
[3] And many people shall go and say, Come ye, and let us go up to the mountain of the LORD, to the house of the God of Jacob; and he will teach us of his ways, and we will walk in his paths: for out of Zion shall go forth the law, and the word of the LORD from Jerusalem.
[4] And he shall judge among the nations, and shall rebuke many people: and they shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruninghooks: nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war any more.
See All...). The Chinese, as all people, will at that time be led to follow God and pursue peace and cooperation with the rest of humankind.
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