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Will Israel Attack Iran?

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Worries about a nuclear-armed Iran are real, and Israel is in the crosshairs. Will the Israelis act, and if so, when?

Can you hear the time bomb ticking in the Middle East? If you flinch under the weight of the escalating price and humiliating dependence on foreign oil, if you hear the threats from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against Israel and the West and if you hear Ahmadinejad's defiant rejection of the West's oft-repeated demands for Iran to cease and desist from enriching uranium, then you do indeed hear the Iranian bomb ticking in the Middle East. Could it go off in the not-too-distant future?
Israelis cannot just wait for the bomb to go off; they live next door. Will Israel attack Iran and if so, when? Recently, Israel conducted an obvious military exercise over the Mediterranean Sea near Greece. The idea of this military exercise was to show that Israel's planes would fly the distance necessary to mount a mission to knock out Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel's implied threat is simple and direct: If enrichment continues, we could strike!

Israeli military exercises over the Mediterranean

Putnam Media Managing Editor Rick Pedraza wrote an insightful article for Newsmax.com titled "Bolton: Israel Will Strike Iran if Obama Is Elected." It addressed a recent Fox News interview of former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton. Pedraza commented on Israel's massive air force exercise over Greece, which the Greek, Israeli and U.S. forces later confirmed was a test run for a strike on Iran's main uranium enrichment plant.
The ordinary person may not have considered Israel's determined, strategic and geopolitical defense against Iran's covert and overt threats of nuclear warfare. Bolton has: "'I think if they are to do anything, the most likely period is after our elections and before the inauguration of the next President.' They'd have to make a judgment whether to [strike] during the remainder of President Bush's term in office or wait for his successor" (www.newsmax.com ).
Remarkably, and counterintuitive to what might be considered a public norm, "Bolton believes Arab countries will support an Israeli strike, effectively ending Iran's nuclear ambitions, while publicly denouncing it" (ibid., emphasis added).
Former Ambassador Bolton thinks that if Senator John McCain wins the presidential race, the Israelis might postpone the attack, offering, "McCain's stance on Iran 'is far more realistic than that of the Bush administration'" (ibid.). Mr. Bolton thinks that Iran would not respond immediately to a strike since they would fear an American reprisal.

Israel, a very tiny nation

With all the saber rattling, Israel has little recourse but to take a very strong military stand, no matter the threat. This small nation is surrounded by overwhelming numbers of Arab states. Israel occupies a pitiful pinch of real estate blanketed by its Arab neighbors, many within its own borders. Every inch of Israel's territory is seen as critical to its safety.
It's easy to discover why Israel is in such a precarious and highly dangerous geopolitical position, a tempting prize for its larger neighbors. Israel, with an area of about 8,000 square miles, is 1/20th the size of California. Israel is 260 miles long with a 120-mile coastline and is 70 miles across at its widest point. Israel is surrounded by more than 20 Arab nations equal to more than 630 times its size, more than 50 times its population—and the surrounding nations currently hold all the oil.

U.S. presidential influence in the mix

With only a few months until the American presidential elections, Israel should and likely will give the Bush administration one more chance to stop Iran's rush to enter the atomic and nuclear age. If nothing concrete happens before January 2009, it's possible that Israel will wait no more.
Will or can the United States do more than offer veiled threats to Iran, considering the U.S. involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan? The surge is working in Iraq, but Iraqi police alone aren't yet able to keep the peace. Taliban fighters are attempting to regain a foothold in Afghanistan. There is speculation that the United States may transfer troops from Iraq to Afghanistan to quell the Taliban surge.
The perplexing entanglement in the Middle East brings to mind Winston Churchill's 1939 radio broadcast in which he referred to forecasting the reaction of Russia to German aggression: "It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma [i.e., a puzzle, difficult to solve]; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."
Perhaps the key to the Iranian threat, counterintuitively, might just be the Arab nations' fear of Iranian hegemony right next door. Though they are overwhelmingly Muslim, the majority of Iranians are ethnically Persians rather than Arabs. The Iranians are also predominately Shiite Muslims (like the majority in Iraq), which makes the Sunni Muslims who control the rest of the Middle East's oil quite nervous.
If there's a military strike on Iran, either from Israel or the West, oil could spike to over $200 a barrel, further alienating the West from unsympathetic oil cartels. Gasoline could rise to $6 a gallon if not more.
It is clear that any U.S. intrusion into Iranian affairs would provoke a strong reaction from surrounding Arab countries, at least verbally. But would they do more? Consider that Iran's neighbors would not like Iran to have the bomb. Privately they would like a leveling of the playing field. An Iran with nuclear weapons would be a threat to the Arab nations, as well as to Israel. So don't assume that threatening rhetoric from nearby Arabic nations means that they are in league with Iran on this hot topic.
The U.S. presidential race is being weighed in the balance by both Iran and Israel. Both Iran and Israel will play out their hands based on how tough they think the next U.S. president will be on Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Will Israel survive?

Will Israel strike at Iranian nuclear facilities? If they conclude they need to, they probably will. It's a matter of self-preservation. With the recent announcement that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will step down after September elections, that seems more likely. Olmert has generally been viewed as a weak and ineffective leader, particularly in military matters.
What will be the outcome of all this? It won't be what most people would expect. Ironically, the Bible shows the Middle East and Israel being invaded by a European-based power described by Daniel as the king of the North (Daniel:11:40-41). Zechariah describes a terrible attack on Jerusalem, with half the city going into captivity (Zechariah:14:1-3).
But after all this, the inhabitants of the Middle East—Jews, Arabs and Iranians alike—will not be thinking about bombs but plowshares (Isaiah:2:4)!
To understand these prophetic events better, request or read online our free booklet The Middle East in Bible Prophecy . WNP

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United Church of God El Paso

Tuesday, March 3, 2015