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Germany and Russia Shifting Balance of Power

More than a century after his death, Otto von Bismarck's dream for Germany seems closer to being realized.

Otto von Bismarck, Germany's Iron Chancellor who presided over the unification of Germany and guided the new nation to great power status, was noted for his sometimes conflicting secret alliances that tried to secure Germany's future. Having secretly entered into a pact with the Austrian Empire in 1879, extended to include Italy seven years later, Bismarck then entered into a secret agreement with Russia, even though Russia and Austria were rivals in the Balkans.
Bismarck's great fear was of a Germany compelled to fight on two flanks, east and west. This is exactly what happened in both world wars with the result that Germany lost.
These two defeats contributed to a century of political upheaval in Germany.
In the 20th century there were six distinct Germanys, each in its own way different from the others. The Second Reich of Kaiser Wilhelm II (1888-1918), defeated in war, gave place to the Weimar Republic (1918-33). This was followed by Hitler's Third Reich (1933-45). Again defeated in war, the country came under Allied control for a brief period before the Federal Republic of (West) Germany was established in 1949, soon followed by the creation of the communist (East) German Democratic Republic. In 1990 these two were united, thereby establishing the sixth distinct German nation of the 20th century.
All six Germanys and previous ones were subject to what columnist Josef Joffe calls "the curse of geography." Geographical location has a profound effect upon national attitudes. The predominantly Anglo-Saxon countries are all protected by lengthy coastlines so that they do not have to greatly concern themselves with hostile neighbors. The result is a certain complacency, even naïveté, in their citizens, who often fail to understand the complexities of the outside world. Germany is in an entirely different situation, almost completely surrounded by other nations, all of which it has been in conflict with at one time or another.
The curse of geography
The curse of geography has been a major contributing factor to Germany's history.
Having learned many lessons from history, the first chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, Konrad Adenauer (1949-63), tried a different approach to diplomacy. Gradually a vision emerged of a new united Europe. Its nucleus was to be France and Germany, two nations that had been at war with each other three times in 75 years. These two nations were to be so closely bound to each other economically that they could never go to war again. The nations of Western Europe were able to rebuild while under the protection of the American nuclear umbrella during the Cold War. Closer economic ties between the various nations of the region would make it seemingly impossible for conflict to rear its ugly head again.
Having secured its western flank, in 1969 Germany started reaching out to the East. Chancellor Willy Brandt's Ostpolitik (Eastern Policy) was aimed at building closer ties to the communist countries of the East, with particular emphasis on East Germany and its master in Moscow. It was to be a further 20 years before the collapse of the communist East and the reunification of Germany. United Germany has recently moved its capital from Bonn back to Berlin, the former Imperial capital, now more appropriate for the nation that has become the dominant power in Europe.
There was a price for unification. Not only was there the economic cost of absorbing millions of poorer East Germans into the new Germany, there was also a cost that had to be paid for French support for reunification. Chancellor Helmut Kohl promised French President Francois Mitterand German support for a new European currency that would bind the two nations even closer together, thereby lessening French fears of reunification.
"…Like Bismarck, Kohl understood the precarious position of Germany-about to become the dominant power in Europe again…. Like Adenauer and Brandt, Kohl knew that Germany was too weak to stand alone but too strong to be left alone….
"Germany's Cold War chains were about to drop off, and so Kohl sought to reassure France and the rest of Europe by replacing the Cold War bonds with those forged by integration. The deutsche mark (Germany's own currency) was the very symbol of German primacy. What better way to soften its edge than to multinationalize the country's currency? By way of the euro, Germany proposed to tie itself down. To the French, invaded thrice by Germany in the space of a lifetime, the euro offered perfect compensation…. Kohl's gracious offer of the deutsche mark as the foundation for a European currency was a godsend for France" ( A Century's Journey edited by Robert Pastor, p. 129, chapter "Germany" by Josef Joffe, editorial page editor and columnist of the Suddeutshe Zeitung , 1999).
"Never sever the tie to St. Petersburg"
Because of Bismarck's pivotal role in the defeat of France in the war of 1870-71, Germany under the kaisers never really had a hope of an alliance with France. But Bismarck, a former ambassador to Russia, always believed that Germany should "never sever the tie to St. Petersburg," the former capital of Russia. A close relationship, even an alliance, with Russia would secure Germany's eastern flank.
After Bismarck, Wilhelm II desperately tried to reach out to Russia, but failed when Russia and France became allies in 1893. This was to prove fatal in World War I when Germany had to fight on both flanks. Following the Russian Revolution in 1917, the Germans and Russians signed the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, which effectively gave the Germans victory in the East. As a result of this treaty, Germany was free to mount a major offensive in the West.
Hitler's strategy was to defeat France first, then turn on Russia. What enabled him to do this was the secret Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of August 1939, between the Soviets and Germany. After defeating France, Hitler invaded Russia. After D-Day Germany ended up fighting on two flanks and lost.
Germany is again turning its attention to its eastern flank. The two countries are forging an economic deal that could shift the balance of power in Europe. The two ministers responsible for the economies of both countries met in December to debate details of a plan to exchange Russian debt for German equity in Russian companies. This would be a roundabout way for German banks to get back some of the money they have lent to Russia, which Moscow has not been able to repay.
Stratfor, an Internet news service, carried an article December 20, 2000, that stated, "Such a development would significantly weaken U.S. influence in Europe while dramatically strengthening Germany and Russia and helping them to advance to the front stage of world geopolitics." If successful, the deal "may help Russia's revival and Germany could emerge as the leader of a united Europe with Russia on its side."
The article, titled "Shifting Europe's Power Balance," added that "Germany would be glad to see Russia's vast resources come to Germany and Europe rather than to the east…. Berlin would also prefer these resources do not move overseas to the United States, Germany's current geopolitical rival" (emphasis added). Interestingly, Hitler thought that eventually "the struggle for global hegemony would come down to two contenders: Germany and the United States. The struggle was not just for Europe but, ultimately, for the whole world" ( A Century's Journey , pp. 109-110).
In the 1880s Bismarck remarked to a friend: "I will tell you the secret of politics: friendship with Ru ssia" (The Kaiser, by Virginia Cowles, p. 85). In a series of articles in the Hamburger Nacht richten in 1895 he emphasized "that Germany was only secure when she had a firm understanding with Russia" (ibid., p. 118).
During the first decade of the 20th century Kaiser Wilhelm II tried to build bridges between Germany, France and Russia. Prior to the Russian czar's visits to Paris and Berlin, he warned his uncle, the English King Edward VII, that these ties were intended to threaten British dominance. "'England could not fail to observe,' he said darkly, 'the strong movement among the countries of the continent towards an economic union to counter British influence, and she would do well to ponder over it'" (ibid., p. 196).
Realizing the threat that these developments posed to the English-speaking world, British Foreign Secretary Joseph Chamberlain wrote on September 10, 1900, "An alliance between Germany and Russia, entailing, as it would, the co-operation of France, is the one thing we have to dread…" (ibid., p. 187).
Shifting balance of power
It is a fact that a closer relationship between Berlin and Moscow would diminish Germany's dependence on the Western alliance. At the same time, closer European union, about to take a major leap forward in January 2002 when the euro replaces national currencies, will lessen Europe's need for America. Germany is and will remain the dominant force in the European Union. "Europe [is] a formalized deutsche mark zone in everything but name" ( A Century's Journey , p. 130).
Through the EU and closer ties to Russia, Germany ironically will have accomplished peacefully what the Second and Third Reichs failed to achieve-a united Europe built around Germany, providing limitless opportunities for German companies to expand, plentiful raw materials from undeveloped Russia and Siberia and trade access to former British and French colonies through the Lomé Convention that ties African, Caribbean and Pacific nations to the EU. Germany also will have secured both flanks, with strong economic ties east and west.
After Bismarck, Wilhelm II was obsessed with building up Germany to rival Great Britain, then the dominant global power. A century later British preeminence has been replaced by American hegemony. The new century will likely see a further change. The Bible tells us that God "removes kings and raises up kings" (Daniel 2:21). God also warns the modern descendants of ancient Israel, the American and British peoples, that He "will break the pride of [their] power" (Leviticus 26:19), a punishment for national sin. A time is coming when the United States will be replaced as the world's leading power, just as Britain lost her leadership role.
However, history would suggest that relations between Germany and Russia can suddenly turn sour. Bismarck's overtures to Russia were reversed when he was no longer chancellor and Wilhelm II took a closer interest in foreign policy. The kaiser tried to build closer ties with Russia but failed. Over 20 years later, Hitler's alliance with Stalin ended when the Soviet Union was attacked in June 1941. After World War II, Moscow's offer of a reunited but neutral Germany in the 1950s was rejected due to lack of trust. The Federal Republic felt more secure tied to the United States through the NATO alliance.
Bible prophecy also suggests that Russia and Germany will not be in alliance as end-time events unfold. Following an invasion of the "Glorious Land" (Holy Land) by the resurrected beast power (Daniel 11:40-43), "news from the east and the north shall trouble him" (verse 44), a likely reference to Russia in alliance with other military forces from the east. Revelation 9:16 prophesies of an "army of…two hundred million," suggesting an alliance of major powers to the east. Further, prophecies regarding Russia in Ezekiel chapters 38 and 39 do not show any alliance with the beast power.
Whatever the outcome of the financial deal between Moscow and Berlin, one fact is clear: Germany has become a major economic power, set to be America's "geopolitical rival" in the years ahead. WNP

United Church of God El Paso

Tuesday, February 25, 2014